​In contrast to predictions and astrological guesses of the past, the book under review is based on hardnosed realities of political and economic ebb and flows, born out of analyses of contemporary political trends, flowing, of course from the past. Nevertheless, it is interesting to note how much “Hope” plays a role in all our actions, challenged as Humanity is today by man--created and natural forces that surround us. The author Hamish McRae has been Financial Editor of the Guardian and Independent newspapers, and had in 1990s, written “The World in 2020”; the present volume views global developments a quarter century ahead to 2050.

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Writing these twin volumes has been, he says, a huge learning curve for him. He notes that he had then sensed, more than predicted, the darkening relations between Russia and the West, and US in particular. China’s relations with the US too had traversed a rocky path because of increasing trade tensions and a more aggressive diplomatic attitude in both countries, more so in China, particularly when it felt cornered over the pandemic issue. The world has since been, through a superhuman effort by science and scientists, able to stave off a contemporary global cataclysm. Since then, China has firmly placed itself as an adversary/challenger of the West in general, and US in particular. The latter has been busy cobbling alliances and groupings in the Indo Pacific against the perceived Chinese threat, while NATO has beefed itself with additional members and reinforced its military muscle against Russia, (with latest news of  additional packages of financial aid for Ukrainian military being released from the US in April 2024.)

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The subjects being covered in the volume under review are vast, and are configured in 11 chapters, covering different (populated) continents as the Americas, Asia, Europe, Africa, Australia (and the Pacific Ocean) While the tangle of politics, internecine, never ending small and big conflicts sap the creative energies of the global society, there are certain overweening issues that will dominate the next 25 years, and more. Climate uncertainties, increasing (and decreasing) populations, unchecked (and desperate) migrations from troubled parts of the world to the developed world, the “Damocles sword” of mutating diseases do not present a pleasant prospect. Climate change in all its “avatars” affects all countries, and while projections based on technology give warning signs, the incidence of such phenomena leaves mankind, rich or poor, in equal distress. This distress is repetitive and challenges best brains and technology at all times. It has done so in the past, and will persist in the years to come, even as humankind goes in its relentless pursuit of “happiness” and development.

 

So are we to believe in Pandora or Nostradamus?

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While acknowledging Nostradamus (figuratively), Mr.McRae substantively has high hopes for the world over the next 25 years. Thirty years ago, writing the “World in 2020”, he claims to have spotted three of the features that dominated the last few years—the Brexit (Britain exiting the EU), political ruptures in the US and the overwhelming global reach of the pandemic. Given these changes, he notes that there may be errors of judgment as to how important or unimportant the consequences of these events may turn out to be. So he sees the present book as a template against which observers at large can fit their ideas---to agree, or otherwise, as they see fit. The best or worst of it would however be how the world has managed to cope effectively with Climate Change. Through discussion of such trends in the book, the author wants to bring out the overall probability of particular outcomes. As events unfold, these probabilities will inevitably change. However, one important objective, he hopes, is to counter the negativity bias of so much of the latter day “Doomsday” commentary, as also to present the broadly positive outcome for welfare of our planet and our species.

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He pinpoints the unpleasant consequences as “Things that may go wrong” - The US political system may fail to hold together, with severe collateral damage to Democracy. What has been bubbling all along may burst forth if there is change in the ruling party in forthcoming elections. The Constitutional system held on by skin of its teeth in 2020.To hold on this time may need genuine equality of opportunity for all peoples who make up the US, and genuine respect for different shades of political opinion. There may not be enough of either, the author feels.

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• US may no longer be the top dog .This may be very difficult for American people to stomach, more than for Britain in their post war reconstruction era, when war exhaustion reconciled them to such a state. If US loses its self confidence, it would have a domino effect in the West, and consequently elsewhere.

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• China, India, and US mismanage their relationship. Tensions between the 3 inevitably wax and wane, the flashpoints are obvious----for India- China it is the border, and now economic rivalry. If China seizes their moment to try taking over Taiwan,(a stated goal since 1949),it would  literally set fire to East Asia waters, that would spread elsewhere easily.

Again, if it became clear that the pandemic virus did indeed escape from the lab. in Wuhan (intentionally as part of biological warfare strategy by China, or sheer inept handling) any trust in US re: China would vanish. Deep down, China has contempt for US, likewise, latter does not understand or respect China.

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• Russia overplays its hand. It may suffer some sort of convulsion that damages itself and its neigbours. Europe(read EU)is already very uncomfortable with all that Russia has done the last 2 years, internally and globally.To have a nation that has 11%of world`s landmass invade its smaller neighbours is something not to be dismissed as “being distant”…it already has lasting ramificatios.The unified response of the West(read NATO)has already altered the balance. This along with ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine has already altered relationship between Russia and rest of the world. Is a new Iron Curtain being drawn across Europe?

 

Even greater danger for rest of the world is that Russia may commit blunders that would have grave global consequences….think of Chernobyl, only much worse. However, he says, we must remember that the Russian people deserve respect. The other is that the present regime will not be there forever, but the danger lies in internal disorder in a nuclear weapons power.

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• Sub-Saharan Africa does not escape from poverty. African people are among the most entrepreneurial people on earth, but failing to establish good governance, environmental degradation created by population growth may lead to lasting problems. The most troubling possibility is that the youngest region of the world in demographic terms(Africa is well set to account for a quarter of global population soon) may become most volatile, with too many young people lacking a job. It is both a moral obligation of the rest of the world to help, and a powerful self interest in doing so.

• Religious conflict bursts out. It is impossible not to acknowledge the difficult relationship between followers of three largest religions in the world---the 2.5 billion Christians, the 1.8 billion Muslims and 1.1 billion Hindus. There is no lack of flashpoints along the lines which intersect, such as India-Pakistan, or Southern edge of Sahara, the Taiwan straits or the Two Koreas. Immigration into Europe has created its own tensions, and the world is still seeing daily the terrible consequences of Israel and Palestine conflict that broods not only over the region, but has inflamed the world. Human brutality has led to human catastrophe. At this time, one does not know if the pendulum of intolerance will continue to swing, or stop its movement, leading to lasting world peace.

• Consequently, the West Asian region becomes truly unstable. It has always been at crossroads of civilizations at conflict, and will remain fragile. Solutions include a just and permanent future for the Gaza and Palestine territories; rapproachment between West and Iran; wise governance on the Arab peninsula, greater economic prosperity in Egypt. But the continuing contemporary state of affairs in this region has been very distressing. The probability is that high points of tension will persist here. At some stage, an uneasy peace might return, but so long as its young people feel angry and dispossessed, the area can never be at peace.

• The long term blow from Covid 19, and related pandemics. The fragility of a technologically advanced and global society was thoroughly exposed by this pandemic. Even bodies like WHO were found wanting (they are still discussing long term consequences of the pandemic at their Geneva hqrs.) The world as a whole was too stunned by the rapid spread of the virus. Eventually, we managed to overcome it, but just about. It is an object lesson about how to tackle other similar viruses as and when they appear. But attacks on health are impossible to predict, as mankind will have to inexorably keep modifying research to keep pace with disease, if not ahead. Now, we hope researchers may get adequate resources  to fight these battles of the future.

However, the negative consequences will be that (at least in the West) people will be less confident about their governments, suspicious of other countries, China in particular. The world has learnt a great deal about the importance of public health policy, but the fear is that all the positive lessons may also be forgotten, or brushed aside for devious reasons.

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• The information revolution may have a malign impact.A better educated world, and one that has widest possible access to knowledge than at any time in recorded history, surely is worthy of celebration. Yet, equally the “clouds” of information now available, coupled with rise of social media, has undermined confidence in the veracity of what people see and read.So much so, that  TV news channels now air what they call “Verified News” to build up credibility! More worrying, it seems that higher the people`s education levels, the more adept they are at seeking out evidence in support of their views, and more likely they are to discount evidence that challenges their viewpoint. Thus more information has led to more disinformation. The classic case of the 2020 US elections showed if people do not want to believe something is true, they won`t do so. What will happen in 2024? We don`t know!

 

In theory, the more information there is, the more valuable are people with 2 sets of skills—sorters and boosters. The sorters can sift through the mass of info., separate signals from the noise,  help people judge what is true and important, and what is neither. The boosters are those who can boost the signals, make people sit up and listen to their messages, constructive or destructive. In practice, the sorters (the media/press) are often distrusted, or under pressure from their readers to become advocate rather than judges. And the most effective boosters are those who peddle rubbish. The outcome is more confusion!

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Cults and conspiracy theories will always be there, but matters may balance out once people realise the perils of social media. However the trends in which information can become corrupted leads one to a bigger worry –that the principles of democracy themselves may be undermined over coming thirty years.A large proportion of the world today lives under some form of democracy that ever before in human history. Despots stand for elections, even if ballots are rigged. And democracy is threatened.

 

At the same time, the author says that to say that every other system is worse, will sound less convincing for some, given that China, given a different system, seems to be outperforming the West. A serious threat to democracy is a wider loss about both the quality of governance that many democracies,(and others pretending to be democracies) offer, and the system of global economics as it has evolved this century. The financial crisis of 2008/9, and the following recession undermined confidence in the economic system ; the second was the uneven response major players-- UK,US,and Europe-- gave to the pandemic that made them, and even the WHO governance, look inept. China seemed relatively unscathed economically, though the story changed thereafter by end 2022.That was notable, given that the virus originated in that country.

 

So, on the obverse, what are the positives?

 

Are we moving towards a middle class world? By 2050, it appears 2/3rds of world population will be middle class or rich. This, he says, has never happened in the history of our species. We are used to think of a world of rich and poor countries, the developed and the emerging ones. In another 30 years there will be still this distinction, but the balance would have shifted---there may be more wealthy and middle income countries—and people and fewer poor ones. And to what extent will this middle class have middle class values? Values change over time—we may all live in similar homes and work in similar offices and factories, but we may spend our leisure hors differently, have different priorities in spending patterns. Thus Chinese, Japanese and Indians of similar earnings save a higher proportion of their income than their Western counterparts. Family attitudes are also different. Again aims in schooling systems in these countries are different---the Orient (including India) stressing preparation for a career earlier than in the West, where education stresses expression and creativity.

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At the same time, with globalization, there is scope for West to learn and be influenced by the East and vice versa. However, what about the shifts in the global middle class society? For sure, the new middle class will feel different from that of today. But what is deemed normal and acceptable now may not be so in another generation, and vice versa. There may be some move towards an authoritarian society, group identity and responsibility may get more emphasis than individual identity and rights. The ways in which many Asian societies responded to the pandemic more effectively than the West was thanks in part to the way in which people here accepted loss of individual liberties for greater good of society.

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On the face of it, a prosperous middle class should be able to contain aggressive nationalism. The most important investment for grandparents is the very future of their grandchildren. They will not want to wreck the world for them.

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The rising ranks of the middle class should make sure their leaders should get along. But the history of the 20th century, with major global disruptions, runs counter to that notion. It is impossible to ignore the surge of nationalism in China and India, and the US-China rivalry without hearing a distant echo of drumbeats that led to war. Now we have to get past the next 20 years of rising global tensions before the ranks of (by then) elderly middle class will assert control, and divert energies to other challenges the world continues to face. What is happening will have as big an impact on human kind as the Industrial Revolution, the economic transformation that set this in motion.​​